Is there a Duke Energy Progress rate increase in 2026? Not in base rates. Duke Energy Progress had no January base rate increase this year. But a higher fuel charge started on June 1, 2026, so many bills did go up. The big rate case in the news is separate, still pending, and would not change rates until January 1, 2027.
That case has also shrunk. Duke first asked for about $729 million. On August 5, 2026, it settled with the Public Staff and other parties for $338 million. Here's what was proposed, what the deal includes, what's already on your bill, and what you can do about it.
Who Does Duke Energy Progress Serve?
Duke Energy Progress serves about 1.6 million North Carolina customers. Its territory covers Raleigh, much of central and eastern North Carolina, including Wilmington, and the Asheville region. It's a separate utility from Duke Energy Carolinas, which serves Charlotte and the Triad. North Carolina has no retail electric choice, so homeowners can't pick another supplier.
The Public Staff (the state agency that speaks for consumers) puts a typical Progress bill at $176.85 a month in summer and $174.85 in winter. Those figures are for 1,000 kWh (kilowatt-hours, the unit on your bill), before tax, as of Sept 1, 2026.
What Changed on 2026 Bills?
On June 1, 2026, the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) approved a higher fuel charge. That's the part of the bill that covers fuel and purchased power. For a home using 1,000 kWh a month, it adds about $7.88 a month, spread over 19 months.
So if your bill climbed this summer, the pending rate case isn't the reason. The fuel charge, the weather and your home's usage are better places to look.
Why Did the Fuel Charge Go Up?
Fuel costs ran above forecast from September 2025 to February 2026. A severe cold snap in late January was a big part of it. Duke set a winter peak record on January 27, 2026, and had to buy expensive power from neighboring utilities.
What Did Duke Energy Progress Ask For?
Duke Energy Progress filed its rate case on November 20, 2025 (docket E-2, Sub 1380). It asked for $528 million more in 2027 and $200 million more in 2028. That's about $729 million, or roughly 15.1% more revenue.
Duke estimated a typical 1,000-kWh bill would rise $23.11 a month in 2027. That would have taken the bill from $163.84 at the time of filing to $186.95. Another $6.59 a month would have followed in 2028. Note that $163.84 was the bill in November 2025, not today's bill.
A Lower Request, Then a Deal
Duke later lowered its ask to $610 million. On August 5, 2026, it reached a settlement with the Public Staff and other parties. The evidentiary hearing (the formal, trial-style part of the case) began a few days later, on August 11.
The August 5 Settlement: 3.4% Across All Customer Classes
The deal allows $338 million in total: $185 million in the first year and $153 million in the second. That's less than half of the original request.
The headline number is 3.4% a year. But that's the average across all customer classes, including businesses and industry. Homeowners would pay more than that average.
What Would the Settlement Mean for Home Bills?
Estimates put a typical 1,000-kWh home bill:
- About $9.60 a month higher starting in 2027
- About $5.90 a month more on top of that in 2028
That's far less than Duke's original $23.11 estimate. Still, the two steps together add roughly $15.50 a month by 2028.
Settled is not the same as approved. Every 2027 number is still an estimate.
Tax Credits Returned to Customers Faster
One term sets this deal apart. Duke Energy Progress earns federal production tax credits for power from its nuclear, solar and hydro plants. Under the settlement, about $120 million a year of those credits would flow back to customers faster in 2027 and 2028. That helps offset the increase.
Other Terms in the Settlement
- A 9.8% return on equity, the profit rate Duke may earn on its shareholders' investment.
- A refund rider. If planned projects run late, customers get money back with interest.
- Lower costs for Roxboro. Federal funding reduces what customers pay for upgrades at the Roxboro plant.
- Coal ash costs spread out. Coal ash is the waste left from burning coal. Its cleanup costs would be recovered over 8 years instead of 5, so less is collected each year.
- $10 million from Duke shareholders for bill help.
Who Didn't Sign?
The NC Attorney General did not sign the Duke Energy Progress settlement. The NCUC can approve the deal as written, change it or reject it.
Is the Duke Energy Progress Rate Increase Approved?
No. The case and the settlement are still pending, and a decision is expected later in 2026. If the NCUC approves new rates, they would start January 1, 2027. A second step would follow on January 1, 2028.
Progress and Carolinas Are Combining
On May 4, 2026, the NCUC approved combining Duke Energy Progress and Duke Energy Carolinas. Federal and South Carolina regulators also signed off. The combination takes effect January 1, 2027.
Your rates won't merge on day one. The two utilities keep separate rate schedules at first, and rates would be combined later through a future rate case. Duke projects about $2.3 billion in customer savings from 2027 to 2040. That's Duke's projection, not a guarantee.
Where Do Data Centers Fit?
Duke's filing cited growth from population, advanced manufacturing and data centers. But the rate case covers grid, generation and reliability costs for everyone. It isn't a “data-center rate increase.”
The bigger risk is what happens if a giant customer leaves. Picture a hypothetical customer that asks for 500 MW of power. Duke builds new lines and generation. Then the customer cancels or uses only a fraction of that load. Without safeguards, someone else ends up paying for that equipment.
What Is Customer Protection Plus?
Duke announced Customer Protection Plus on July 23, 2026, for very large new customers like data centers. It can require them to pay their own connection costs, make long-term commitments and post financial security upfront. It also allows termination charges and temporary curtailment (cutting their use when the grid is strained).
Duke says revenue from these customers above their cost to serve will benefit other customers. That's Duke's claim. It doesn't mean home rates can't rise.
Why Your Usage Matters So Much
Much of Progress territory has long, hot, humid summers. An aging or oversized AC can run for hours and drive up your kWh. Winter matters too, especially in the mountains around Asheville. Heat pumps can lean on auxiliary heat (backup electric heat that costs much more to run) on cold nights.
Here's a hypothetical example. Say your home uses 18,000 kWh a year, and HVAC and efficiency upgrades cut that to 14,000. That's 4,000 fewer kWh. At an all-in cost of 17¢ per kWh, you'd save about $680 a year. That savings grows if rates go up.
Diagnose First, Then Fix
Start with your annual kWh, summer and winter peaks, HVAC age, insulation and duct leaks. Duke's free Home Energy House Call can help if your home has a heat pump, electric heat or central air.
Then look at Duke's Smart $aver rebates. They include $350 to $900 for a heat pump, depending on efficiency, and $700 for attic insulation plus air sealing. A heat-pump water heater earns $500. Duke's EnergyWise Home program also pays a $150 credit when you enroll a smart thermostat, then $50 a year.
Help for Income-Qualified Homes
Energy Saver NC, run by NC DEQ, offers HOMES and HEAR rebates for households at or below 150% of area median income. Since September 1, 2026, HEAR no longer pays to switch from gas, propane or oil to electric. Duke also offers free weatherization for qualifying households. For bill help, ask about the Customer Assistance Program, Share the Light Fund and Helping Home Fund.
Consider When You Use Power
Duke Energy Progress offers time-of-use plans, where the price depends on the time of day. On-peak hours are 6–9 p.m. on weekdays from May through September, and 6–9 a.m. on weekdays from October through April. The Flex Savings Option adds critical-peak pricing on up to about 20 days a year. These plans reward homes that can shift usage and can cost more for homes that can't.
Solar and Battery Storage
Solar can reduce the power you buy from Duke Energy Progress, but only if the math uses current rules. New customers choose Residential Solar Choice, which requires a time-of-use rate, or the Net Metering Bridge. The Bridge is scheduled to close to new customers at the end of 2026 and could fill sooner. The old 30% federal tax credit no longer applies to systems placed in service after 2025.
Batteries are mostly about resilience in this part of the state. They can keep a refrigerator, well pump, internet or medical equipment running through hurricane and tropical-storm outages. Keep in mind that Duke's PowerPair solar-and-battery incentive has filled up in Duke Energy Progress territory.
A rate case tells you what the utility may charge.
Your home tells you what to do about it.
The Ashborn Approach
Ashborn Partners helps North Carolina homeowners look at the full energy picture before buying anything. We review your Duke usage, your HVAC and your home's efficiency. Then we look at whether solar, a battery or some combination fits, and connect you with participating providers in your area.
The rate case will set Duke's price. Your home decides how much of it you pay.
Duke Energy Progress’ rate case and settlement (NCUC docket E-2, Sub 1380) have not been approved; the NCUC can approve, change or reject them. Bill estimates are for 1,000 kWh a month and may differ from your bill. Rates and programs can change.