Is there a Duke Energy Carolinas rate increase in 2026? Yes, but probably not the one in the headlines. Your bill already went up twice this year: a base rate step on January 1 and a new fuel charge on June 1. The big rate case people are talking about is different. It is still pending, and it would not touch bills until January 1, 2027.
That pending case also got a lot smaller. Duke first asked for about $1 billion in new revenue. In July 2026, it reached a settlement with the Public Staff and other parties for about half that amount. Here's what was filed, what changed, what's still undecided, and what you can control.
Who Does Duke Energy Carolinas Serve?
Duke Energy Carolinas serves about 2.3 million North Carolina customers. That includes Charlotte, Durham, the Triad (the Greensboro and Winston-Salem area) and western North Carolina. Its sister utility, Duke Energy Progress, serves Raleigh and much of the east. North Carolina has no retail electric choice, so you can't switch to another supplier.
The Public Staff (the state agency that represents consumers) puts a typical Carolinas bill at $159.02 a month. That figure is for 1,000 kWh (kilowatt-hours, the unit on your bill), before tax, as of Sept 1, 2026.
Yes, Your Bill Already Rose in 2026
On January 1, 2026, Duke Energy Carolinas base rates rose about 3.94%. That was the final step of a multiyear rate plan approved in 2023, plus changes to riders (extra line-item charges). So if your bill looked higher this winter, part of the reason was a real, approved price change.
The June 1 Fuel Charge
A second change arrived on June 1, 2026. The North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) approved a higher fuel charge (the part of the bill that covers fuel and purchased power). For a home using 1,000 kWh a month, it adds about $6.90 a month. The cost is spread over 19 months to soften the hit.
Why? Fuel costs ran above forecast from September 2025 to February 2026. A severe cold snap in late January made it worse. Duke set a winter peak record on January 27, 2026, and had to buy expensive power from neighboring utilities.
The rate case is pending. The January step and the June fuel charge are already on your bill.
What Did Duke Energy Carolinas Ask For?
Duke Energy Carolinas filed its rate case on November 20, 2025 (docket E-7, Sub 1329). It asked for $727 million more in 2027 and another $275 million in 2028. That's about $1.0 billion in total, or about 15% more revenue.
Duke estimated a typical 1,000-kWh bill would rise $17.22 a month in 2027, then $6.34 more in 2028. At the time of filing, Duke's typical bill was $144.98. Under the original request, it would have climbed to $162.20 in 2027. Keep in mind that $144.98 was the bill in November 2025, not today's bill.
Duke Lowered Its Request in June
On June 19, 2026, Duke lowered its ask to $622 million. The evidentiary hearing (the formal trial-style part of the case) began July 7, 2026. Ten days after the hearing began, the main parties reached a deal.
The July 17 Settlement: 3.7% Across All Customer Classes
On July 17, 2026, Duke Energy Carolinas settled with the Public Staff and other parties. The deal allows $496 million in total: $286 million in year one and $210 million in year two. That's about half of Duke's original ask.
You'll see the number 3.7% a lot. That's the average yearly increase across all customer classes, including businesses and industry. It is not the residential number.
What Would the Settlement Mean for Home Bills?
Residential customers would see more than 3.7%. Estimates put the home increase at about 5.9% in 2027 and 3.6% in 2028, or about 9.5% over two years. For a home using 1,000 kWh a month, that's roughly:
- About $9.39 more per month starting in 2027
- About $5.52 more per month on top of that in 2028
That's well below Duke's original $17.22 estimate. But it's still a real increase, and it would stack on top of this year's changes.
What Else Is in the Settlement?
The deal does more than set a number. Its main terms include:
- A 9.8% return on equity, the profit rate Duke is allowed to earn on its shareholders' investment.
- A Multiyear Rate Plan refund rider. If planned projects run late, customers get money back with interest.
- Lower costs for Belews Creek. Federal funding cuts what customers pay for upgrades at the Belews Creek Steam Station.
- $10 million from Duke shareholders for bill assistance and weatherization.
- A faster process to set rates for data centers and other very large customers.
Who Didn't Sign the Deal?
Not everyone agreed. NC Attorney General Jeff Jackson and Gov. Josh Stein did not sign the settlement. The Attorney General said the increase is still too high. The NCUC makes the final call.
Is the Duke Energy Carolinas Rate Increase Approved?
No. The rate case and the settlement are both still pending before the NCUC. A decision is expected later in 2026. The commission can accept the deal, change it or reject it.
If it's approved, new rates would start January 1, 2027. A second step would follow on January 1, 2028. Until then, treat every 2027 number as an estimate.
Carolinas and Progress Are Combining
The NCUC approved combining Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress on May 4, 2026. Federal and South Carolina regulators approved it too. The combination takes effect January 1, 2027.
That doesn't mean one rate for everyone right away. The two utilities keep separate rate schedules at first. Rates would merge later through a future rate case. Duke projects about $2.3 billion in customer savings from 2027 to 2040, but that's Duke's projection, not a promise.
Is This a Data-Center Rate Increase?
Not exactly. Duke's filing pointed to growth from population, advanced manufacturing and data centers. The rate case covers broad grid, generation and reliability costs. Calling it a “data-center rate increase” oversimplifies it.
What Is Customer Protection Plus?
On July 23, 2026, Duke announced Customer Protection Plus for very large new customers like data centers. It can require them to fund their own connection costs and sign long-term commitments. It can also require upfront financial security, termination charges if they leave early, and temporary curtailment (cutting their power use when the grid is strained).
The goal is to keep homeowners from paying for equipment built mainly for one huge customer. Duke also says revenue from these customers above their cost to serve will benefit everyone else. That's Duke's claim, and it isn't a guarantee that home bills will fall.
Will Rates Keep Rising After 2028?
Duke's own planning points that way. In its Carolinas Resource Plan, filed October 1, 2025, Duke said load growth will be about eight times the pace of the prior 15 years. It projects bills rising about 2.1% a year on average over the decade. The NCUC is expected to decide on that plan by the end of 2026.
A 2025 state law also plays a role. The Power Bill Reduction Act (Senate Bill 266) lets Duke recover financing costs for new baseload plants each year while they're being built. In short, rate pressure is unlikely to stop after this case.
What You Can Control: Your kWh
You can't set Duke's rates. You can cut how many kWh your home buys. Every kWh you don't use avoids today's price and every future increase.
Here's a hypothetical example. Say your home uses 16,000 kWh a year, and upgrades bring that down to 13,000. That's 3,000 fewer kWh. At an all-in cost of 16¢ per kWh, you'd save about $480 a year. If rates rise, that same cut is worth more.
Start With Heating and Cooling
For many North Carolina homes, heating and cooling is the biggest electric load. Look at your HVAC system's age, summer run time and duct leaks. Check attic insulation and air sealing too. If you have a heat pump, watch for heavy use of auxiliary heat (backup electric heat that costs much more to run) on cold days.
Duke's free Home Energy House Call is a good first step if your home has a heat pump, electric heat or central air. Duke's Smart $aver rebates can also help. They include $350 to $900 for a heat pump, depending on efficiency, $700 for attic insulation plus air sealing, and $350 for duct sealing.
Programs That Can Lower Your Costs
Duke's Power Manager program pays a $150 credit when you enroll a smart thermostat, then $50 a year. Income-qualified homes may get free weatherization. Energy Saver NC, run by NC DEQ, offers HOMES and HEAR rebates for households at or below 150% of area median income. Since September 1, 2026, HEAR no longer pays to switch from gas, propane or oil to electric.
If bills are a struggle, ask about Duke's Customer Assistance Program, Share the Light Fund and Helping Home Fund. The Customer Assistance Program is scheduled to end December 31, 2026 unless it's extended.
Watch When You Use Power
Duke offers time-of-use plans, where the price depends on the time of day. On-peak hours are 6–9 p.m. on weekdays from May through September. From October through April, they're 6–9 a.m. on weekdays. These plans can help homes that can shift laundry, dishwashing or EV charging. They can hurt homes that can't.
Solar and Batteries: Use Current Rules
Solar can cut how much power you buy from Duke Energy Carolinas. But the old net metering rules closed to new systems in 2023. New customers choose Residential Solar Choice, which requires a time-of-use rate and credits extra solar at a lower value, or the Net Metering Bridge. The Bridge is scheduled to close to new customers at the end of 2026 and could fill sooner.
Run the numbers without the old 30% federal tax credit. It no longer applies to systems placed in service after 2025. Duke's PowerPair solar-and-battery incentive has limited capacity, and it has already filled up in Duke Energy Progress territory. A battery mainly solves a different problem: keeping key loads running during outages.
HVAC changes how much you use. Solar changes where it comes from.
A battery changes when you have it.
The Ashborn Approach
Ashborn Partners starts with the house, not the product. Before recommending anything, we look at your Duke usage history, your HVAC system and your home's overall efficiency. Then we look at whether solar, battery storage or a mix makes sense, and connect you with participating providers in your area.
You can't control Duke's next rate. You can control how much of it your home has to buy.
Duke Energy Carolinas’ rate case and settlement (NCUC docket E-7, Sub 1329) have not been approved; the NCUC can approve, change or reject them. Bill estimates are for 1,000 kWh a month and may differ from your bill. Rates and programs can change.